WP 1 Historical data and future forcings
A historical catalogue of reported and modelled floods will established a baseline scenario for the analysis, further extended into the future under climatic and socioeconomic changes.
Flood Adaptation under Climate Change with the European Socio-Hydrological Model (EuroSoHo)
The aim of this project is to quantify the societal reaction to flood risk across European regions. It will enable studying the past and future evolution of the human-water system across the continent under the expected changes of both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing.
A transferable model
EuroSoHo will be a publicly available, adaptable model for applications from local to European scales.
Cost-benefit framework
Costs of various adaptation options will be contrasted with long-term benefits reinforced or reduced by dynamic human-water feedbacks.
Adaptation to climate change
The project will inform on the optimal strategies to cope with increased flood risk in the future due to climate change.
Who We Are
About the project
Flood Adaptation under Climate Change with the European Socio-Hydrological Model (EuroSoHo) is an ERC Starting Grant that has started in December 2025. The project will develop the EuroSoHo model to quantify past and future flood risk dynamics across the continent. This probabilistic, system dynamics model will be calibrated on historical data on flood occurrence, their impacts, floodplain exposure changes, and large-scale flood prevention schemes across more than 1400 European regions.
The model will incorporate multiple socio-hydrological parameters such as awareness, preparedness, reactiveness or risk aversion, quantifying the historical baseline of the society’s reaction to floods. EuroSoHo will then be able to project the future evolution of the human-water system in Europe under the expected changes of both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing. The results will indicate which combination of adaptation strategies would be most effective in each region given their local-scale costs and benefits.
Work plan
The project will last five years until 2030 and feature extensive pan-European analyses
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WP 2 Levee effect
Societal propensity to build structural defences after floods, and then to ignore flood risk under the safety of defences will be quantified.
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WP 3 Adaptation effect
The uptake of individual precautionary measures and reduction of new construction after floods will be analysed.
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WP 4 Model development and data-driven calibration
The EuroSoHo model will be built integrating hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing with levee and adaptation effects and calibrated with empirical data.
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WP 5 Expert-driven calibration and flood risk projections
The model will be further improved by employing Structured Expert Judgment elicitation and used to calculate the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies under future scenarios.
Project results
EuroSoHo has just started! Results will appear here in due time. We encourage you to explore our previous work on which EuroSoHo is built upon
Natural Hazards
Established as part of DFG-funded project FloodDrivers, HANZE database is the most comprehensive resource on historical floods in Europe, combining observational and modelled data for a multifactor attribution of flood impacts.
Learn MoreCompass Project
Funded under the European Union’s Horizon programme, the projects aims to develop a methodological framework for impact attribution of various complex climate extremes that includes compound, sequences and cascading hazard events.
Learn MoreTeam
The project will be carried out by a newly-established research group at the University of Szczecin, Poland
Dominik Paprotny
Principal investigator
Olga Terefenko
Project coordinator
New colleagues
Post-docs
New colleagues
PhD students, student assistantsFunding
EuroSoHo has received funding from the European Union’s HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions Programme under Grant Agreement No. 101218797
Contact
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